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Odds on a United Ireland: Time for a Referendum?

Stories odds united ireland
Oct 15, 2021 09:10Andrej Trajkovski

Both classic bookmakers and the ones that operate strictly online are becoming more and more inventive. In addition to the traditional sports betting options, they are adding bets related to politics like the Irish reunification.

To be honest, this talk is not something new. There were calls for something like this to happen for decades, but the status of the northern part of the island remains the same. We would also like to point out that this is a very sensitive question for people in the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom. Yet, an experienced bettor knows that emotions should not play any role when placing bets, be it about United Ireland or the next Premier League match.

Now, without further ado, let’s check the odds on a United Ireland and see how we can benefit from the question about the Irish Unification of 2024.

Was Ireland ever United?

We must answer this question because not everyone outside the UK and the Republic of Ireland are familiar with the history of the island of Ireland. Of course, many residents of these two sovereign countries will find this short historical explanation useful, especially when planning to place bets on the Irish Unification of 2024.

The simple answer to this question is affirmative. There were times when the island was united, which means there was united Ireland too. For instance, this country existed as the Kingdom of Ireland from 1542 until 1800 (which is over 250 years). It’s worth mentioning that this was a client state of England (and Great Britain after that). So, the monarchs of England/GB ruled the island together with a viceroy.

After that, this kingdom became part of the United Kingdom. Fast forward to 1919, when the Irish declared Ireland independent. The formal creation of the Irish Free State took place in 1922. Officially, Ireland became a republic in 1949. During these stages of independence, the leaders of this country have always considered Northern Ireland part of the Republic. Even today, the constitution of this country includes an article that recognized the right of Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland.

Ireland before and after 1921

One of the main reasons this part of the island didn’t join United Ireland sooner is the demographics. The northern part is bi-ethnic and includes many people of British ethnicity. Of course, the vast majority of these people don’t want to witness an Irish reunification. In fact, some of them are hardcore British/English nationalists.

So, we can’t say that the situation here is clear, and that’s why this betting market is so interesting and potentially lucrative.

Whenever the global geopolitical situation changes, it impacts local and regional issues, too, and the question of Irish reunification is not an exception. We have witnessed this back in the early 1990s with the fall of the Eastern Bloc. This event led to the rise of nationalism in Eastern Europe, which eventually spread to Western Europe. Logically, the idea of United Ireland was the main topic among all Irish nationalists.

But, there’s another event that has made the supporters of this idea enthusiastic was Brexit. The UK had finally left the European Union in 2020. Most people thought that this was a good idea (after all, they voted YES on the referendum), but a significant number of people opposed this decision. Those in favor argued that it’s better when you are governed by a government that represents your people and some Irish people used this to reaffirm their idea of reunification. They believe it’s time for a referendum in Northern Ireland and eventually in the Republic of Ireland.

As a result, we now have the Irish reunification as a betting option in many brick-and-mortar betting shops and online bookies. Now that you have a basic idea of what’s going on, you might want to jump on the bandwagon. To make a better decision, we will provide additional info, so read our analysis to the end.

Placing a bet on Irish Unification before 2024

As we have already mentioned, you have different betting markets regarding this topic. Before you place any bets, you must be sure what you are betting on. Of course, we’re talking about United Ireland here, but the bets can be different. For example, you can bet on whether there will be a referendum on United Ireland before 2024. On the other hand, you can bet on whether the referendum will pass and Ireland will become united. Additionally, some bookies may let punters bet on whether Ireland will become united differently (maybe the two countries will agree to sign a deal without holding referendums).

Currently, the odds for a vote on Irish Unification to pass before 1 January 2024 are +200. If we look closely at the past months, we will notice that these odds have not changed much in 2021. Of course, we should also mention that there are still over two years to place a bet on this event.

Furthermore, there were general elections in Ireland in 2020. The ruling coalition won again. Even though this coalition includes conservatives, their ideology includes pro-Europeanism. This means that they would like to see Europe united, not further divided with newly formed territories. Sinn Fein might be the only party that seriously supports reunification. Still, they are an opposition party, and this affects the odds.

Needless to say, no one is in a hurry to open this question in the United Kingdom. Except for marginal groups, the established parties, including the Labour Party, the Conservative Party, and even the Liberal Democrats, oppose the Irish reunification.

When we take all these things into account, we can freely say that betting in favor of the Irish Unification of 2024 is not a good idea. It’s one thing to bet on an underdog. Still, it’s another to place your money on something that’s extremely unlikely, almost impossible to happen. Sure, two years are a long period, but not in international politics, especially for such important questions.

We have seen political problems that have lasted for decades, and some of them are still not resolved. In addition, the mood among the British politicians is the most essential part of this issue. As we said before, no serious politician there wants to talk about United Ireland. That’s probably why the Irish politicians are reserved. However, the idea is very much alive on this part of the island. All in all, avoid this bet unless you’ve got extra cash and you want to brag that you’ve placed a funny bet.

Is it worth betting on United Ireland before 2030?

Now, this is the real question a bettor should ask regarding Irish reunification. It’s 2021 now, which means that there are less than 9 years to get the answer. In this case, we would say that there’s a chance that there’s value in betting on United Ireland before 2030. On top of that, you have the odds of +350 at most bookmakers.

As previously mentioned, there were elections in the Republic of Ireland in 2020. The next regular elections will be in 2024, and then we will have another vote in 2028. This is a scenario in which there are no early elections, but they can happen too. So, who knows what will politicians think and promise three or eight years from now, and what will the global political scene look like then?

The UK will have general elections in 2024 and 2028. Still, the last elections were held earlier than scheduled, which means that they too can have more than two general elections in this period. We’ve already mentioned that the British politicians and most of the politicians from Northern Ireland are against the idea. Yet, there’s another thing that can affect these things. As you might have guessed, we’re talking about the potential referendums in Scotland and even in Wales.

Scotland had an independence referendum in 2014. The voters have rejected independence, but there are calls for a new referendum. The latest polls have suggested that most voters are now pro-independence. The idea of Welsh independence is gaining followers too. It’s wise to say that these changes have an impact on the possible Irish reunification.

Besides the vote on Irish Unification in 2030, bettors have a couple of other betting options. First of all, you can bet that the Two-State Referendum on Irish Unification will be held before 2030. This time, the odds are (almost) in favor of this event, and this is the reason why we have odds at +110. If you want to play safe (and still have fun), you may want to consider this bet.

The other bet is on the Irish Unification approved by Two State Referendum before 2030. This is a good option for punters looking for good value in relatively risky bets. You’re looking at odds of +275.

Betting on Irish Reunification: The Final Verdict

We hope that you will find our analysis of the Irish reunification useful. We’ve provided a historical aspect of this issue and analyzed the odds. We believe a bet on United Ireland before 2030 is worth a try, while the one aimed at this Unification before 2024 is only for the bravest punters. Well, unless you strongly believe in the prediction from Data from StarTrek.

In any case, you should keep following the latest news and checking the odds if you are interested in this event, and making proper decisions.

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Andrej Trajkovski
Lady Liberty
Andrej Trajkovski Avatar
As a gambling editor, Andrej aims to provide readers with everything new from the world of gambling. Since he is our columnist, his topics are often a bit more extensive and fun. Whether it’s analysis on the reunification of Ireland, Spotify gambling playlists, or history posts, he gets the job done.
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